The Gamble

The Gamble is the title of a book by Thomas Ricks that I have been reading for the past couple of months (too much tv watching, not enough reading). It is the second book Ricks wrote about the Iraq War. His first book, Fiasco, described the disaster that ensued after our invasion of Iraq in 2003. The title of The Gamble is a reference to the surge in troops and effort in 2006 that essentially prevented a disaster, both on the ground here in Iraq and for the US on the international stage. The surge was more than just an increase in the number of boots on the ground. It was also a major change in strategy, operations, and tactics. At the strategic level the focus shifted from figuring out how to get out of the country as painlessly as possible to protecting the Iraqi people. Operationally, US forces began working with and even hired insurgents who had been attacking them just weeks or even days prior. The significant change in tactics was putting troops out into the local populace. This helped the troops learn the area they were protecting, ensured insurgents couldn’t move into the area after the US left, and, most importantly, encouraged the Iraqis to assist in the security operations rather than tacitly or overtly supporting the insurgents. No one can now say the surge didn’t work (I was among the skeptics at the beginning).

I assume you heard about the 30 June deadline for us to move our forces out of Iraqi cities. That date was established as part of the Security Agreement signed between the US and Iraq. Prime Minister Maliki, the leader of Iraq, declared 30 June as a national holiday on par with Iraq evicting the occupying British forces in 1920. Not exactly a “thanks for a job well done.” You may have heard about a memo from a senior advisor in Baghdad that was recently leaked (go here for a link to a NYT article about it). This advisor, Col Reese, says we should declare victory and go home. The current plan is to reduce our combat forces in Iraq to 50,000 (currently about 130,000) by August 2010. Col Reese says we should completely leave the country by August 2010. At the end of The Gamble, Ricks presents many competing theories about how long the US should remain in Iraq. They range from proposals similar to Col Reese’s to keeping combat forces here indefinitely. The author himself thinks we are only at the halfway point of our time here, meaning we will be here until 2015 or later. My problem with all of those theories is they are based on what the US wants to do. What about the Iraqis?

I think there soon will be a second gamble in Iraq. The gamble this time will be by the Iraqis though, not us. Not only have we left the cities, but now we defer to the Iraqis to lead operations against the insurgents. I’ve often heard times when the Iraqi Army told our guys to stay home because they don’t need us. I don’t have a problem with that. This is their country and they should shoulder the responsibility for it. I’m just not sure the Iraqis are ready for it. Regardless, I think whoever wins their national elections in January 2010 will tell us it is time for us to go. We may get until August 2010 just because the sheer logistics of it, but they will want us out sooner rather than later. Sorry mom, I don’t think this means I will be coming home early. The Iraqis will need the USAF and other, specialized groups to remain because they don’t have the capability to replace us yet. The rules for us are changing and they are being written by the Iraqis. I’m certain, whether they are truly ready or not, they will become even more assertive after next year’s elections. I pray that they are ready.

More Pics from My ECP Visit

Here is our group walking on the road away from the gate. You can pick me out in the pictures because I am the one wearing a leather shoulder harness.


On either side of the T-walls (the large concrete barriers) are farmers' fields. Grapes are being grown in this one.

We are at the end of the road talking about the local area. The village across the road (over my left shoulder) used to be the officer and NCO housing for the base when it was run by the Iraqi Air Force.


Security is not only about protecting our people, but also keeping Iraqi civilians safe. So this sign, and others like it, are there to ensure there aren't any misunderstandings.

It’s Not the Humidity, It’s the Heat

Some have asked about the weather here. In a word, it’s hot. For a second word, it’s dry. For the next several months, we won’t see a drop of rain. The predicted temperatures for today through Monday are 100/68 (68 is the lowest temp I’ve seen in my 3 weeks here), 104/75, and 106/79. Although it gets cool at night, by 0800 it is in the 90s. Don't feel sorry for me though. My CHU (containerized housing unit) is well air-conditioned and I have an air conditioner in my office that I can adjust the temperature for and turn on/off. Because of the kind of work I do, about the only times I am exposed to the heat is going to/from work, meetings, and meals. The people who take the brunt of the heat are the Security Forces (SF, aka police), aircraft maintainers, airfield operators, construction, and others like that. They deserve credit for getting the mission done under these conditions.

The other day I had the opportunity to visit the base’s East ECP (entry control point), basically a base gate. This entrance is used by the local nationals (LNs, we have an acronym for everything) who need to come on base either to work or visit the Air Force Theater Hospital (As an aside, our hospital does an awesome job taking care of our troops, the locals, and even the enemy. The day I visited the ECP, a 5-month old was brought to the hospital because he wasn’t breathing properly. They resuscitated and took x-rays of the baby and we saw the family leaving as we were coming back on base). I spent an hour walking around seeing how our SFs provide base security and process people. I was VERY impressed. I’m grateful the men and women of SF are there. It is hot and dangerous work. Because of the threat, they have to constantly wear their body armor and helmet. By the end of my hour touring the ECP, I was soaked to the bone with sweat. Kudos, and prayers, to them and all the Airmen, Soldiers and Marines who are patrolling in the cities, villages, and countryside.

I said it is dry, but I should also say it is dusty. The dust gets everywhere. Sometimes the sun looks more like the moon because of all the dust in the air (makes for beautiful sunsets though). My green boots now look tan. We are told to clean our air conditioner filters weekly because of it. It does rain here though, from October/November through March/April. And you know what happens when you add rain to dirt, you get mud. Apparently it gets so muddy here that you have to take an extra pair of shoes with you everywhere so you can change into clean ones when you go into a building. We even have something called MudCon (mud condition). When MudCon is in effect, vehicles must be sprayed down with pressure washers any time they are going near where aircraft operate. That way they don't drop mud near an aircraft and the aircraft then sucks it up into its engine. It is definitely never dull here. :)

I find that I’m adjusting to the weather. Last week I wasn’t feeling well. I went outside into the heat (probably high 90s at that time) and immediately felt better. Also, I find I don't start sweating as soon or as much when I am outside. But I still get to work in air conditioned comfort, so slap me if you ever hear me complaining about the weather.